Daily Papers

Language-model systems can separate contextual computation, persistent storage, and exact execution instead of updating all capabilities through one shared parameter system. We investigate FEM-ASM, a finite-element-method-inspired organization in which independently constructed document states and deterministic executable skills contribute typed proposals to a shared language-model state. An explicit residual operator reconciles proposals attached to common interface nodes. We evaluate this organization through controlled experiments and negative results rather than claiming a physical finite-element formulation of language. An attention-free Multi-Mesh prototype learns causal language modeling but does not establish competitive general capability. A versioned store contains 52,809 reconstructive memory elements near a 1.7-billion-floating-value budget; reconstruction is incomplete, with approximately 75\% token accuracy. Support-aware lexical indices make these elements addressable under provenance-controlled query construction. For executable arithmetic, positional result observations substantially improve neural rendering relative to a repeated global result vector, and output substitutions change the model's preferred answer. A bounded attachment demonstration further measures the effect of making selected evidence available, without establishing the utility of loading an entire multi-billion-value store. The results support a separation of storage, execution, and neural coordination, while identifying unresolved limitations in question-only retrieval, unrestricted answer generation, and end-to-end efficiency.

Position bias in multiple-choice LLM evaluation is widely cited as a confound in capability comparisons, but published measurements rely on single answer-order shuffles whose results confound the bias signal with content-level noise and sampling stochasticity. I introduce inspect_permute, an open-source extension to the inspect_ai evaluation framework that runs exhaustive answer-order permutations per question and reports the chi-squared / Cramer V signature of position bias with bootstrap confidence intervals. I apply the tool across four vendors (gpt-4o-mini, claude-haiku-4-5, gemini-2.5-flash, grok-3) on five MMLU subjects, 24,000 API calls under temperature-0 generation, with falsifier predictions pre-registered via a public SHA-256 hash before half the data was observed. Position bias turns out to be statistically detectable only within a roughly 60-95% base-accuracy Goldilocks zone. Below it, processing-load dominance swamps subject-specific signal; above it, ceiling effects compress the variance below the chi-squared test resolution. Detectable cells separate into two mechanism types: monotone A-to-D decrease (processing_load, in low-tier models) and non-monotone D-drop (content_ambiguity, in a narrow capability band). Standard MMLU places every frontier-tier model above the detection band, so absence of signal there should be read as not measurable, not unbiased. Together with the ceiling-effect characterisation in arXiv:2606.26185, this work brackets the detectable region of position-bias measurement and makes the field central question askable in a verifiable form. Package, data, preregistration under MIT.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in zero-shot learning applications, generating responses to queries using only pre-training information without the need for additional fine-tuning. This represents a significant departure from traditional machine learning approaches. Previous research has indicated that LLMs may exhibit serial position effects, such as primacy and recency biases, which are well-documented cognitive biases in human psychology. Our extensive testing across various tasks and models confirms the widespread occurrence of these effects, although their intensity varies. We also discovered that while carefully designed prompts can somewhat mitigate these biases, their effectiveness is inconsistent. These findings underscore the significance of serial position effects during the inference process, particularly in scenarios where there are no ground truth labels, highlighting the need for greater focus on addressing these effects in LLM applications.

Positional bias (PB), manifesting as non-uniform sensitivity across different contextual locations, significantly impairs long-context comprehension and processing capabilities. While prior work seeks to mitigate PB through modifying the architectures causing its emergence, significant PB still persists. To address PB effectively, we introduce Pos2Distill, a position to position knowledge distillation framework. Pos2Distill transfers the superior capabilities from advantageous positions to less favorable ones, thereby reducing the huge performance gaps. The conceptual principle is to leverage the inherent, position-induced disparity to counteract the PB itself. We identify distinct manifestations of PB under \textsc{r}etrieval and \textsc{r}easoning paradigms, thereby designing two specialized instantiations: Pos2Distill-R\textsuperscript{1} and Pos2Distill-R\textsuperscript{2} respectively, both grounded in this core principle. By employing the Pos2Distill approach, we achieve enhanced uniformity and significant performance gains across all contextual positions in long-context retrieval and reasoning tasks. Crucially, both specialized systems exhibit strong cross-task generalization mutually, while achieving superior performance on their respective tasks.

Recent studies show that paddings in convolutional neural networks encode absolute position information which can negatively affect the model performance for certain tasks. However, existing metrics for quantifying the strength of positional information remain unreliable and frequently lead to erroneous results. To address this issue, we propose novel metrics for measuring (and visualizing) the encoded positional information. We formally define the encoded information as PPP (Position-information Pattern from Padding) and conduct a series of experiments to study its properties as well as its formation. The proposed metrics measure the presence of positional information more reliably than the existing metrics based on PosENet and a test in F-Conv. We also demonstrate that for any extant (and proposed) padding schemes, PPP is primarily a learning artifact and is less dependent on the characteristics of the underlying padding schemes.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Physical-field reconstruction and forecasting depend on both measurement density and spatial layout, yet evaluation under a single observation pattern does not characterize performance when that pattern changes. We introduce PDE-OBS, an integrated benchmarking platform spanning numerical data generation, model training, and inference and evaluation under varying observation conditions. It combines 560,000 fields and trajectories from seven partial differential equation families with configurable observation operators and seven adapted baseline methods for stationary reconstruction and short-horizon forecasting. Separating observation construction from physical records allows users to specify parameterized patterns and deterministic mixtures for training and testing while preserving prediction targets and data splits. The evaluation protocol uses references trained for each test pattern to compare models on identical test observations and targets, alongside equal-count groups for spatial-layout comparisons. On a 14,000-record subset, we evaluate 441 trained models under nine test patterns, yielding 3,969 evaluations. Mean cross-pattern error exceeds mean matched-pattern error in all 49 PDE-method pairs, and this finding persists in a configuration-matched subset of 117 models. Denser test observations do not consistently reduce error for a fixed model. Mixed-pattern training on five completed pairs reduces large single-pattern transfer errors, although destination-trained references usually remain more accurate. Together, the benchmark and findings support systematic evaluation of observation-pattern sensitivity and provide a reusable workflow for developing methods under changing measurement conditions. Code: https://github.com/ru1ch3n/PDE-OBS.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enhanced their ability to process long input contexts. This development is particularly crucial for tasks that involve retrieving knowledge from an external datastore, which can result in long inputs. However, recent studies show a positional bias in LLMs, demonstrating varying performance depending on the location of useful information within the input sequence. In this study, we conduct extensive experiments to investigate the root causes of positional bias. Our findings indicate that the primary contributor to LLM positional bias stems from the inherent positional preferences of different models. We demonstrate that merely employing prompt-based solutions is inadequate for overcoming the positional preferences. To address this positional bias issue of a pre-trained LLM, we developed a Position-Aware Parameter Efficient Fine-Tuning (PAPEFT) approach which is composed of a data augmentation technique and a parameter efficient adapter, enhancing a uniform attention distribution across the input context. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively reduces positional bias, improving LLMs' effectiveness in handling long context sequences for various tasks that require externally retrieved knowledge.

Because anomalous samples cannot be used for training, many anomaly detection and localization methods use pre-trained networks and non-parametric modeling to estimate encoded feature distribution. However, these methods neglect the impact of position and neighborhood information on the distribution of normal features. To overcome this, we propose a new algorithm, PNI, which estimates the normal distribution using conditional probability given neighborhood features, modeled with a multi-layer perceptron network. Moreover, position information is utilized by creating a histogram of representative features at each position. Instead of simply resizing the anomaly map, the proposed method employs an additional refine network trained on synthetic anomaly images to better interpolate and account for the shape and edge of the input image. We conducted experiments on the MVTec AD benchmark dataset and achieved state-of-the-art performance, with 99.56\% and 98.98\% AUROC scores in anomaly detection and localization, respectively.

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

LLM-based listwise passage reranking has attracted attention for its effectiveness in ranking candidate passages. However, these models suffer from positional bias, where passages positioned towards the end of the input are less likely to be moved to top positions in the ranking. We hypothesize that there are two primary sources of positional bias: (1) architectural bias inherent in LLMs and (2) the imbalanced positioning of relevant documents. To address this, we propose DebiasFirst, a method that integrates positional calibration and position-aware data augmentation during fine-tuning. Positional calibration uses inverse propensity scoring to adjust for positional bias by re-weighting the contributions of different positions in the loss function when training. Position-aware augmentation augments training data to ensure that each passage appears equally across varied positions in the input list. This approach markedly enhances both effectiveness and robustness to the original ranking across diverse first-stage retrievers, reducing the dependence of NDCG@10 performance on the position of relevant documents. DebiasFirst also complements the inference-stage debiasing methods, offering a practical solution for mitigating positional bias in reranking.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

The advent of autonomous agents is transforming interactions with Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) by employing natural language as a powerful intermediary. Despite the predominance of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) methods in current GUI agents for achieving spatial localization, these methods face substantial challenges due to their limited capacity to accurately perceive positional data. Existing strategies, such as reinforcement learning, often fail to assess positional accuracy effectively, thereby restricting their utility. In response, we introduce Location Preference Optimization (LPO), a novel approach that leverages locational data to optimize interaction preferences. LPO uses information entropy to predict interaction positions by focusing on zones rich in information. Besides, it further introduces a dynamic location reward function based on physical distance, reflecting the varying importance of interaction positions. Supported by Group Relative Preference Optimization (GRPO), LPO facilitates an extensive exploration of GUI environments and significantly enhances interaction precision. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate LPO's superior performance, achieving SOTA results across both offline benchmarks and real-world online evaluations. Our code will be made publicly available soon, at https://github.com/AIDC-AI/LPO.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

Large language models exhibit positional bias -- systematic neglect of information at specific context positions -- yet its interplay with linguistic diversity remains poorly understood. We present a cross-linguistic study across five typologically distinct languages (English, Russian, German, Hindi, Vietnamese), examining how positional bias interacts with model uncertainty, syntax, and prompting. Key findings: (1) Positional bias is model-driven, with language-specific variations -- Qwen2.5-7B favors late positions, challenging assumptions of early-token bias; (2) Explicit positional guidance (e.g., correct context is at position X) reduces accuracy across languages, undermining prompt-engineering practices; (3) Aligning context with positional bias increases entropy, yet minimal entropy does not predict accuracy. (4) We further uncover that LLMs differently impose dominant word order in free-word-order languages like Hindi.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

Advances in wireless electroencephalography (EEG) technology promise to record brain-electrical activity in everyday situations. To better understand the relationship between brain activity and natural behavior, it is necessary to monitor human movement patterns. Here, we present a pocketable setup consisting of two smartphones to simultaneously capture human posture and EEG signals. We asked 26 basketball players to shoot 120 free throws each. First, we investigated whether our setup allows us to capture the readiness potential (RP) that precedes voluntary actions. Second, we investigated whether the RP differs between successful and unsuccessful free-throw attempts. The results confirmed the presence of the RP over fronto-central channels, with significant negative deflection at channel Cz, from -400 to 0 ms before movement onset (M pm SE: -6.54 pm 2.26 to -13.52 pm 2.42 μV; z = -2.53 to -3.92; FDR-corrected p = 0.049 to 0.003; r = 0.50 to 0.77). However, the amplitude of the RP was not related to shooting success (all FDR-corrected p > 0.05; maximum mean R^2 = 0.047, i.e., 4.7% explained variance). Preliminary exploratory pose analysis conducted offline indicated the presence of participant-specific variations in posture between successful and unsuccessful shots in 38.5% of participants (10/26), with 4.5% explained variance (maximum mean landmark R^2 = 0.045). We conclude that a highly portable, low-cost and lightweight acquisition setup, consisting of two smartphones and a head-mounted wireless EEG amplifier, is sufficient to monitor complex human movement patterns and associated brain dynamics outside the laboratory.

We consider estimating the conditional distribution of a multivariate outcome given covariates when its coordinates may be continuous, binary, categorical, ordinal or rankings, and are conditionally dependent on one another. Different statistical methods have been developed for each outcome type, and most of them target a summary of the conditional distribution, such as the mean of each coordinate, rather than the joint distribution of the outcome vector. We develop generalized engression models, a unified nonparametric distributional regression framework for outcomes of any type. The proposed method builds upon engression, a scoring-rule-based deep generative model, and introduces a data-type-specific link function and a stochastic perturbation that smooths the loss, enabling gradient-based training even with discontinuous links. We establish universal representation results for continuous, discrete and mixed outcomes. In simulations and in two applications, 242 species in a community ecology benchmark and a 17-dimensional mixed-type health outcome, the method matches type-specific models on marginal scores, improves on them on the joint distribution, and matches or exceeds purpose-built state-of-the-art joint species distribution models. Software is available in Python.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

While dense retrieval models have achieved remarkable success, rigorous evaluation of their sensitivity to the position of relevant information (i.e., position bias) remains largely unexplored. Existing benchmarks typically employ position-agnostic relevance labels, conflating the challenge of processing long contexts with the bias against specific evidence locations. To address this challenge, we introduce PosIR (Position-Aware Information Retrieval), a comprehensive benchmark designed to diagnose position bias in diverse retrieval scenarios. PosIR comprises 310 datasets spanning 10 languages and 31 domains, constructed through a rigorous pipeline that ties relevance to precise reference spans, enabling the strict disentanglement of document length from information position. Extensive experiments with 10 state-of-the-art embedding models reveal that: (1) Performance on PosIR in long-context settings correlates poorly with the MMTEB benchmark, exposing limitations in current short-text benchmarks; (2) Position bias is pervasive and intensifies with document length, with most models exhibiting primacy bias while certain models show unexpected recency bias; (3) Gradient-based saliency analysis further uncovers the distinct internal attention mechanisms driving these positional preferences. In summary, PosIR serves as a valuable diagnostic framework to foster the development of position-robust retrieval systems.

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

In-context learning (ICL) is a critical emerging capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling few-shot learning during inference by including a few demonstrations (demos) in the prompt. However, it has been found that ICL's performance can be sensitive to the choices of demos and their order. This paper investigates an unexplored new positional bias of ICL for the first time: we observe that the predictions and accuracy can drift drastically when the positions of demos, the system prompt, and the user message in LLM input are varied. We refer to this bias as DEMOS' POSITION IN PROMPT (DPP) bias. We design a systematic evaluation pipeline to study this type of positional bias across classification, question answering, summarization, and reasoning tasks. We introduce two metrics, ACCURACY-CHANGE and PREDICTION-CHANGE, to quantify net gains and output volatility induced by changes in the demos' position. Extensive experiments on ten LLMs from four open-source model families (QWEN, LLAMA3, MISTRAL, COHERE) verify that the bias significantly affects their accuracy and predictions: placing demos at the start of the prompt yields the most stable and accurate outputs with gains of up to +6 points. In contrast, placing demos at the end of the user message flips over 30\% of predictions without improving correctness on QA tasks. Smaller models are most affected by this sensitivity, though even large models remain marginally affected on complex tasks.

We post-train Qwen3.8-27B for Korean response style -- verbosity, list and markdown usage, discourse structure and register -- and measure two behaviours the objective never targets: abstention on ambiguous social questions in KoBBQ, where the benchmark-correct answer is UNKNOWN, and unprompted disclosure in securities guidance. Both move, and the changes are expressed primarily through the model's emission policy: how often it answers and how much it says. Matched target-form controls show that answer propensity depends on the training target, not the prompt set or recipe alone. Holding prompts, recipe, data volume and serving fixed and changing only the target text, three style seeds give positive answer-rate point estimates (mean +0.82 pp) and three neutral seeds negative ones (mean -1.53 pp); the observed seed ranges do not overlap and the means differ by 2.34 pp. A length-matched arm lies between them, and a fourth arm that stays short while preserving hedging is unstable across seeds, so which feature of the form is responsible is unresolved. For absolute stereotyped exposure the decomposition into an answer-propensity term and a conditional-composition term is an algebraic identity, not a finding; its empirical content is where the movement went. Across the trained checkpoints the changes are dominated by answer propensity while the composition term stays small, and because that term is evaluated on treatment-dependent answered subsets we do not read it as evidence about latent preference. Two measurement results follow. A between-arm contrast in conditional stereotyped share does not identify a change in conditional content preference when answer status is treatment-dependent. And agreement between two rule detectors for the same construct runs from 0.44 to 0.99 depending on which checkpoint produced the text -- observable without any reference labels.

Position bias has proven to be a prevalent issue of modern language models (LMs), where the models prioritize content based on its position within the given context. This bias often leads to unexpected model failures and hurts performance, robustness, and reliability across various applications. Our mechanistic analysis attributes the position bias to two components employed in nearly all state-of-the-art LMs: causal attention and relative positional encodings. Specifically, we find that causal attention generally causes models to favor distant content, while relative positional encodings like RoPE prefer nearby ones based on the analysis of retrieval-augmented question answering (QA). Further, our empirical study on object detection reveals that position bias is also present in vision-language models (VLMs). Based on the above analyses, we propose to ELIMINATE position bias caused by different input segment orders (e.g., options in LM-as-a-judge, retrieved documents in QA) in a TRAINING-FREE ZERO-SHOT manner. Our method changes the causal attention to bidirectional attention between segments and utilizes model attention values to decide the relative orders of segments instead of using the order provided in input prompts, therefore enabling Position-INvariant inferencE (PINE) at the segment level. By eliminating position bias, models achieve better performance and reliability in downstream tasks where position bias widely exists, such as LM-as-a-judge and retrieval-augmented QA. Notably, PINE is especially useful when adapting LMs for evaluating reasoning pairs: it consistently provides 8 to 10 percentage points performance gains in most cases, and makes Llama-3-70B-Instruct perform even better than GPT-4-0125-preview on the RewardBench reasoning subset.

How strongly do the remaining diffusion-sampling steps amplify a perturbation at a late latent state? Standard measurements answer this question with newly sampled isotropic noise, even though perturbations encountered during sampling have already been transformed by earlier steps. We compare these two cases directly. For each trajectory, we transport a centered perturbation from an earlier step to a late state, then replay its direction at the same magnitude as a newly sampled isotropic perturbation; both then undergo the same remaining updates. Across the samplers we study, median paired shaped-to-fresh angular-gain ratios range from 1.14 to 2.35. Shaped angular gain exceeds its matched fresh counterpart in every trajectory in the original main cohorts. The same pattern appears when endpoint change is measured by latent RMS. The effect also appears in perceptual feature representations: earlier-sampling directions cause larger feature changes at the endpoint, even when the corresponding pixel-space change is comparable. Permuting shaped directions across trajectories weakens the effect, including within class, indicating that the advantage depends on alignment with the receiving trajectory as well as on shared directional structure.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

Agentic reinforcement learning requires assigning credit to environment-facing actions such as searches, clicks, edits, navigation commands, and object interactions. Standard GRPO uses the final verifier outcome as a uniform advantage over all action tokens. This outcome signal is useful but structurally incomplete: it punishes useful exploration in failed rollouts and reinforces redundant or regressive actions in successful rollouts. We propose TRIAGE, a role-typed credit assignment framework that adds a semantic role axis to outcome credit. A structured judge classifies each segment as decisive progress, useful exploration, no-progress infrastructure, or regression, and a fixed role-conditioned rule maps these labels to bounded segment-level process rewards. This keeps verifier outcomes as the source of optimization direction while correcting the two main blind spots of outcome-only credit. We further show that role-conditioned credit is the optimal segment-level correction expressible from role labels alone -- a projection of the per-segment advantage residual onto the role variable -- so that the fixed role constants reduce advantage estimation error whenever the judge is reliable, and we connect this to lower-variance policy gradients. Across ALFWorld, Search-QA, and WebShop, TRIAGE improves success rates over GRPO for two policy models and outperforms both a scalar judge-derived process reward and an outcome-supervised shared-backbone value baseline. Ablations show that the gain comes from role typing rather than merely adding dense rewards: reliable detection of regression inside successful trajectories is the dominant contributor, while exploration credit provides a consistent secondary gain; on completed ALFWorld and WebShop rollouts, TRIAGE also reduces environment-facing turns by an additional 10.4% and 14.8% relative to GRPO.

This study investigates a specific form of positional bias, termed the Myopic Trap, where retrieval models disproportionately attend to the early parts of documents while overlooking relevant information that appears later. To systematically quantify this phenomenon, we propose a semantics-preserving evaluation framework that repurposes the existing NLP datasets into position-aware retrieval benchmarks. By evaluating the SOTA models of full retrieval pipeline, including BM25, embedding models, ColBERT-style late-interaction models, and reranker models, we offer a broader empirical perspective on positional bias than prior work. Experimental results show that embedding models and ColBERT-style models exhibit significant performance degradation when query-related content is shifted toward later positions, indicating a pronounced head bias. Notably, under the same training configuration, ColBERT-style approach show greater potential for mitigating positional bias compared to the traditional single-vector approach. In contrast, BM25 and reranker models remain largely unaffected by such perturbations, underscoring their robustness to positional bias. Code and data are publicly available at: www.github.com/NovaSearch-Team/RAG-Retrieval.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

Design biases in NLP systems, such as performance differences for different populations, often stem from their creator's positionality, i.e., views and lived experiences shaped by identity and background. Despite the prevalence and risks of design biases, they are hard to quantify because researcher, system, and dataset positionality is often unobserved. We introduce NLPositionality, a framework for characterizing design biases and quantifying the positionality of NLP datasets and models. Our framework continuously collects annotations from a diverse pool of volunteer participants on LabintheWild, and statistically quantifies alignment with dataset labels and model predictions. We apply NLPositionality to existing datasets and models for two tasks -- social acceptability and hate speech detection. To date, we have collected 16,299 annotations in over a year for 600 instances from 1,096 annotators across 87 countries. We find that datasets and models align predominantly with Western, White, college-educated, and younger populations. Additionally, certain groups, such as non-binary people and non-native English speakers, are further marginalized by datasets and models as they rank least in alignment across all tasks. Finally, we draw from prior literature to discuss how researchers can examine their own positionality and that of their datasets and models, opening the door for more inclusive NLP systems.

Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding is central in observational causal inference. In proxy models with a discrete latent confounder, prior Synthetic Potential Outcomes (SPO) [Mazaheri-Squires-Uhler '25] recover the mixture of treatment effects through recursively constructed scalar moments. We show that this sequence is one projection of a more fundamental object. Under the same population factorization assumptions, there is an exact compressed observable operator: after projecting onto the shared proxy signal subspace, the difference of two treatment-arm quotient operators is similar to the diagonal matrix of latent treatment effects. Its eigenvalues are the latent effects; its lifted left eigenvectors, after anchor normalization, recover the target-proxy feature matrix and then the latent mixture proportions. Every scalar SPO moment is a bilinear functional of a power of this operator. The resulting estimator handles overcomplete proxy systems, replaces high-order scalar inversion with finite-dimensional spectral analysis, and admits high-probability first-order perturbation bounds for treatment effects, feature rows, and simplex-projected mixture weights.

We investigate how looped transformers encode human preference, training lightweight evaluator heads on frozen Ouro-2.6B loop-iteration states on Anthropic HH-RLHF. v2: an erratum is prepended; the original manuscript is unchanged. A post-publication audit found the three headline results inflated by two independent evaluation errors. The 95.2% pairwise evaluator accuracy is a canonical-ordering artifact: the data were correctly split, but the evaluator learned to prefer the first-presented argument; its strict antisymmetrized accuracy on the full 8,552-pair test set is 63.9%. The 84.5% pairwise probe and the below-chance 21.75% pointwise probe were source-item leaks (orientation rows and pair partners crossing the train/test split); corrected pair-disjoint values are 56.5% and 54.2% -- above chance, so the "inverted polarity" finding is withdrawn. The central finding survives at much smaller magnitude: preference is decoded more accurately relationally than pointwise (paired +2.3 points, 95% CI [+1.3, +3.3]), and the antisymmetrized evaluator still beats the linear probe, but no corrected readout rivals end-to-end reward models. The methodological findings stand (constant-output degeneracy, flip test, swap-protocol metric deflation), with one correction: antisymmetrized accuracy, not antisymmetry correlation, certifies relational discrimination. The two errors are mutually invisible -- a split audit cannot see an ordering prior, antisymmetrization cannot see a leak -- so both checks are required. Full audit in the follow-up work (Kirin, 2026, in preparation).

In most Vision-Language models (VL), the understanding of the image structure is enabled by injecting the position information (PI) about objects in the image. In our case study of LXMERT, a state-of-the-art VL model, we probe the use of the PI in the representation and study its effect on Visual Question Answering. We show that the model is not capable of leveraging the PI for the image-text matching task on a challenge set where only position differs. Yet, our experiments with probing confirm that the PI is indeed present in the representation. We introduce two strategies to tackle this: (i) Positional Information Pre-training and (ii) Contrastive Learning on PI using Cross-Modality Matching. Doing so, the model can correctly classify if images with detailed PI statements match. Additionally to the 2D information from bounding boxes, we introduce the object's depth as new feature for a better object localization in the space. Even though we were able to improve the model properties as defined by our probes, it only has a negligible effect on the downstream performance. Our results thus highlight an important issue of multimodal modeling: the mere presence of information detectable by a probing classifier is not a guarantee that the information is available in a cross-modal setup.

Retrieval Augmented Generation enhances LLM accuracy by adding passages retrieved from an external corpus to the LLM prompt. This paper investigates how positional bias - the tendency of LLMs to weight information differently based on its position in the prompt - affects not only the LLM's capability to capitalize on relevant passages, but also its susceptibility to distracting passages. Through extensive experiments on three benchmarks, we show how state-of-the-art retrieval pipelines, while attempting to retrieve relevant passages, systematically bring highly distracting ones to the top ranks, with over 60% of queries containing at least one highly distracting passage among the top-10 retrieved passages. As a result, the impact of the LLM positional bias, which in controlled settings is often reported as very prominent by related works, is actually marginal in real scenarios since both relevant and distracting passages are, in turn, penalized. Indeed, our findings reveal that sophisticated strategies that attempt to rearrange the passages based on LLM positional preferences do not perform better than random shuffling.

In this position paper, we argue that the classical evaluation on Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks using annotated benchmarks is in trouble. The worst kind of data contamination happens when a Large Language Model (LLM) is trained on the test split of a benchmark, and then evaluated in the same benchmark. The extent of the problem is unknown, as it is not straightforward to measure. Contamination causes an overestimation of the performance of a contaminated model in a target benchmark and associated task with respect to their non-contaminated counterparts. The consequences can be very harmful, with wrong scientific conclusions being published while other correct ones are discarded. This position paper defines different levels of data contamination and argues for a community effort, including the development of automatic and semi-automatic measures to detect when data from a benchmark was exposed to a model, and suggestions for flagging papers with conclusions that are compromised by data contamination.

LLM-as-a-Judge has emerged as a promising alternative to human evaluators across various tasks, yet inherent biases - particularly position bias, the tendency to favor solutions based on their position within the prompt - compromise its reliability. This exploratory study evaluates position bias in LLM judges across pairwise and list-wise comparison settings, introducing three metrics: repetition stability, position consistency, and preference fairness. Our experiments, involving 15 LLM judges across MTBench and DevBench with 22 tasks and approximately 40 solution-generating models, result in over 150,000 evaluation instances. We identify Judge-Level, Candidate-Level, and Task-Level factors contributing to bias. The findings confirm that position bias is not due to random chance and varies significantly across judges and tasks. While position bias is weakly influenced by the length of prompt components, it is strongly affected by the quality gap between solutions. Our agreement and disagreement analysis among judges further provides insights into the distribution of judging difficulty across the dataset, and highlights the potential for dataset modifications.

Eliminating examination bias accurately is pivotal to apply click-through data to train an unbiased ranking model. However, most examination-bias estimators are limited to the hypothesis of Position-Based Model (PBM), which supposes that the calculation of examination bias only depends on the rank of the document. Recently, although some works introduce information such as clicks in the same query list and contextual information when calculating the examination bias, they still do not model the impact of document representation on search engine result pages (SERPs) that seriously affects one's perception of document relevance to a query when examining. Therefore, we propose a Multi-Feature Integration Model (MFIM) where the examination bias depends on the representation of document except the rank of it. Furthermore, we mine a key factor slipoff counts that can indirectly reflects the influence of all perception-bias factors. Real world experiments on Baidu-ULTR dataset demonstrate the superior effectiveness and robustness of the new approach. The source code is available at https://github.com/lixsh6/Tencent_wsdm_cup2023/tree/main/pytorch_unbias{https://github.com/lixsh6/Tencent\_wsdm\_cup2023}

This paper is concerned with inference on the regression function of a high-dimensional linear model when outcomes are missing at random. We propose an estimator that combines a Lasso pilot estimate of the regression function with a bias correction term based on the weighted residuals of the Lasso regression. The weights depend on estimates of the missingness probabilities (propensity scores) and solve a convex optimization program that trades off bias and variance optimally. Provided that the propensity scores can be pointwise consistently estimated at in-sample data points, our proposed estimator for the regression function is asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient among all asymptotically linear estimators. Furthermore, the proposed estimator retains its asymptotic properties even if the propensity scores are estimated by modern machine learning techniques. We validate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator through comparative simulation studies and the real-world problem of inferring the stellar masses of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Reordering multiple-choice options can change a model's answer, an effect studied as selection bias (a preference for certain option letters) and as order sensitivity (changes in answers across option orderings). We connect these perspectives through the pooled selection-rate standard deviation (pooled SD), which measures how unevenly option letters are selected across questions and orderings. When every option of each question appears equally often at each position, the pooled SD is exactly the product of two label-free factors: the flip rate and the positional skew. The flip rate is the fraction of questions whose chosen option changes across orderings; the positional skew is the standard deviation of option-letter selection rates among those questions. Across 41 checkpoints and 12 benchmarks, the flip rate tracks accuracy and output uncertainty, while the positional skew tracks the estimated option-symbol prior. Prior correction for selection bias mainly reduces the positional skew. Aggregating each ordering with its reversal, a mitigation for order sensitivity, mainly reduces the flip rate. Both reduce the range of accuracy across correct-answer letters by similar amounts, but aggregation leaves fewer model-rank reversals. Applying prior correction before aggregation reduces both factors and further narrows this accuracy range. However, aggregation lowers the flip rate partly by settling questions on the same wrong option. We therefore recommend reporting both factors to distinguish mitigation effects, alongside accuracy to distinguish stability from correctness.

Latent world models are judged by how well they predict, so when planning fails at long horizons the natural reading is that the predictor degrades. On a reproduction of LeWorldModel on TwoRoom we show the binding constraint is the planner's objective instead. The predictor is not the limit: its imagined state seventy-five environment steps ahead is still only 0.189 as wrong as assuming the world froze, while the planner never imagines beyond twenty-five. The objective is. Cross-entropy-method planning minimises squared latent distance, which tracks true distance at r = 0.426, saturates by about eighty arena units and decreases beyond a hundred and twenty, so moving away from the goal can lower the cost. The information is present throughout: a ridge probe recovers position from the frozen embedding at R^2 0.9922. The pathology is the method's, not one reimplementation's. It is present in the authors' released weights, and across four checkpoints long-horizon success rank-orders exactly with metric quality and inversely with prediction accuracy. Replacing only the objective, with nothing retrained and no GPU, lifts goals reached at offset 100 from 26.0% to 98.0%, equals the 98.0% at offset 25, and reaches 92.0% under a third of the budget: planning stops depending on the horizon. The best cost is not the most accurate. A head learned from frame separation alone predicts spatial distance worse than a position probe (r = 0.819 against 0.9897) yet plans better, charging 24% more to cross the environment's dividing wall where squared latent distance charges 4% less. It has learned reachability, not proximity.

Clinical decision-making relies heavily on understanding relative positions of anatomical structures and anomalies. Therefore, for Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to be applicable in clinical practice, the ability to accurately determine relative positions on medical images is a fundamental prerequisite. Despite its importance, this capability remains highly underexplored. To address this gap, we evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art VLMs, GPT-4o, Llama3.2, Pixtral, and JanusPro, and find that all models fail at this fundamental task. Inspired by successful approaches in computer vision, we investigate whether visual prompts, such as alphanumeric or colored markers placed on anatomical structures, can enhance performance. While these markers provide moderate improvements, results remain significantly lower on medical images compared to observations made on natural images. Our evaluations suggest that, in medical imaging, VLMs rely more on prior anatomical knowledge than on actual image content for answering relative position questions, often leading to incorrect conclusions. To facilitate further research in this area, we introduce the MIRP , Medical Imaging Relative Positioning, benchmark dataset, designed to systematically evaluate the capability to identify relative positions in medical images.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Probes are the workhorse of interpretability. If a model's hidden states predict a variable, the model is said to represent it. But a probe score has no fixed meaning. An R^2 of 0.6 may only reflect what the input already gives away, and the same score can mean different things on different data. We propose reading every probe score against two reference points: a floor, what a declared set of simple inputs already predicts, and a ceiling, what the full input can predict. The gap between them, the headroom, is the range in which a probe can show that a model computes something beyond the simple inputs. We prove that headroom vanishes in two ways: the target stops depending on a hidden variable the model must infer, or the input stops revealing it. We test this on transformers trained for in-context meta-analysis, which must infer the hidden heterogeneity between studies to weight them correctly, and where both reference points are known. Under distribution shift, probe scores fall and prediction error rises 12--15times, yet the model recovers a similar share of the headroom, indicating that the data lost information, not the representation. We then analyze the real models. The single-cell foundation model scGPT encodes biological variability only partially. We also revisit four influential LLM probing studies, which claim that models represent geography, the state of an Othello board, truth, and the demographics of their users. Against a floor computed from the input text alone, some of these claims hold, while others are largely explained by the text itself.

Linear position interpolation helps pre-trained models using rotary position embeddings (RoPE) to extrapolate to longer sequence lengths. We propose using linear position interpolation to extend the extrapolation range of models using Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). We find position interpolation significantly improves extrapolation capability on upstream language modelling and downstream summarization and retrieval tasks.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Spatial intelligence requires more than describing object locations. Under incomplete observation, models must identify and acquire missing evidence, interpret it in a common spatial frame, and act on it. We introduce VA-Bench to evaluate the complete observe-reason-act-revise loop. General-purpose MLLMs learn procedural context from RGB-only demonstrations, actively select camera viewpoints, issue metric Cartesian commands, and revise them from execution feedback. Models receive no privileged object poses, oracle trajectories, or learned action heads. A fixed model-agnostic controller executes only model-specified targets. VA-Bench contains 14 base task families (11 single-arm and three dual-arm), seven held-out geometry/layout variants, and a long-horizon five-object composition track. We evaluate 12 primary model conditions in three independent runs over the same 20 physically verified seeds per base task, reporting terminal success, nine trajectory-level behavioral diagnostics, and subtask progress. First, the best-performing model scores 100.0% on target localization and 78.9% on spatial relations in the annotated run. Its three-run macro-average task success is only 53.93+/-3.17%. Second, active camera control significantly improves task success over passive multi-view observation. In one matched comparison, success rises from 27.86% to 57.50%. Third, held-out geometric transfer can reduce task success by over 30 percentage points. No model completes a strict long-horizon episode, despite substantial partial progress. VA-Bench thus tests whether general-purpose MLLMs can turn visual demonstrations and actively acquired evidence into successful embodied action.

Radiographic assessment of lower-limb alignment (LLA) is important for predicting joint health and surgical outcomes in total knee arthroplasty. Traditional measurement methods are manual and time-consuming, while recent machine learning approaches typically rely on locating a fixed set of anatomical landmarks. This dependence limits flexibility and may require re-annotation when clinical definitions change. To address this, we propose an automated workflow using Implicit Neural Shape Functions (INSF). Rather than relying on explicit landmark coordinates, we encode the anatomy into a compact latent space and regress clinical alignment measurements directly from these latent codes. This architecture allows for rapid extendability to new tasks without altering the backbone representation. We trained our method on an internal dataset of 566 knee radiographs, each annotated with the outline of the femur and tibia. We evaluated it on both an internal test dataset of 50 patients and a separate external set of 402 preoperative cases from the MRKR dataset. Manual clinical measurements are available for these data, and the MRKR measurements will be made publicly accessible. Performance was comparable to state-of-the-art landmark-based methods and manual agreement, while offering a flexible shape representation that can be extended to additional measurement tasks.

We study training LLM judges from natural language feedback, especially for subjective tasks where the verdict depends strongly on which evaluation criteria the judge invokes and how it weighs them. The dominant approach, outcome-supervised RL (e.g., GRPO), credits every token in the rollout with a single scalar determined only by the accuracy of the final verdict, providing no separate credit at the criterion-choice tokens and ignoring the rich language feedback (e.g., preference rationales) that naturally accompanies preference labels. Self-Distillation (SD) is one natural way to use this language feedback: the same model, conditioned on this feedback, acts as a teacher providing dense, position-level supervision. However, not all positions carry equally useful signal. Using the per-position entropy shift between teacher and student, we identify two regimes: context sharpening, where the teacher concentrates probability on a particular feedback-aligned criterion expression, and context spreading, where the teacher distributes probability across multiple feedback-aligned alternatives. We interpret these patterns as follows: sharpening encourages memorization of a particular criterion expression, whereas spreading promotes semantic understanding by preserving these alternatives. Motivated by this asymmetry, we introduce position masking based on the entropy shift that retains the lower tail of the entropy-shift distribution. Experiments show that masking higher-entropy-shift positions improves out-of-distribution generalization over naive SD. The resulting self-distilled judges outperform judges trained with outcome-supervised RL by 2-9 percentage points on the evaluated subjective subcategories, while remaining competitive on objective ones.

Low latent prediction error does not establish that a world model distinguishes the consequences of its actions. We introduce an evaluation protocol that traces the same intervention through simulator state, raster observations, target embeddings, and predictor outputs. Exact simulator-state forks in a controlled deformable-physics testbed reveal distinct bottlenecks. Changed commands alter particle motion, yet 41.5% of one-step raster pairs are identical. Observation loss is not the whole explanation: among 579 high-visibility counterfactuals, median predictor-to-target response is 0.0051 and 0.0217 across two seeds, falling to 0.0027 and 0.0116 after variance normalization. An isotropic state perturbation matched to the target counterfactual embedding shift produces 190x and 53x larger predictor changes on the same visible pairs, isolating action-path under-use rather than a dead or globally shrunk predictor. MSE-only training gives 8.36x lower 10-step latent error in matched seeds, but in spectrally concentrated spaces; one VICReg target encoder is also strongly concentrated, so neither error nor rank alone certifies physical state. Finally, stiffness remains near chance even from full-resolution rasters and mechanical state while privileged material parameters decode perfectly, indicating weak identifiability under this excitation rather than encoder discard. These results motivate auditing physical effect, observation visibility, representation geometry, and action dependence separately.

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.

Poor sitting posture can lead to various work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). Office employees spend approximately 81.8% of their working time seated, and sedentary behavior can result in chronic diseases such as cervical spondylosis and cardiovascular diseases. To address these health concerns, we present SitPose, a sitting posture and sedentary detection system utilizing the latest Kinect depth camera. The system tracks 3D coordinates of bone joint points in real-time and calculates the angle values of related joints. We established a dataset containing six different sitting postures and one standing posture, totaling 33,409 data points, by recruiting 36 participants. We applied several state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to the dataset and compared their performance in recognizing the sitting poses. Our results show that the ensemble learning model based on the soft voting mechanism achieves the highest F1 score of 98.1%. Finally, we deployed the SitPose system based on this ensemble model to encourage better sitting posture and to reduce sedentary habits.

Computer-use agents ground natural-language instructions in screenshots to locate interface elements, yet existing benchmarks do not isolate whether models bind relational language to the correct element. We introduce GUI-Primitives, a 994-item benchmark of contrastive instruction pairs over seven spatial relations in graphical user interfaces (left/right, above/below, containment, alignment, proximity, list ordinal, occlusion). Each pair holds the screenshot and anchor fixed while changing the relation expression, so the correct target moves between two designated candidates. Five annotators validate a 196-item subset (κ= 0.94 well-formedness; κ= 0.79 target selection). Nineteen vision-language models reach at most 32% strict point-in-box accuracy. Because models emit unconstrained coordinates, we classify each prediction by the candidate region it falls within. Predictions fall outside both candidates on 60-92% of items. Conditional on falling within a candidate region, target selection reaches 0.82-0.90 for horizontal position, vertical position, proximity, and list ordinal, but does not differ significantly from 0.50 for containment and occlusion: most failures reflect candidate localization rather than relation understanding. Across ten models, benchmark accuracy correlates with ScreenSpot-Pro accuracy (Spearman ρ= +0.74), an exploratory association at this sample size. Marking the two designated candidates raises selection accuracy by 35--57 percentage points, an oracle diagnostic that supplies the candidate set rather than a deployable method. We release the benchmark, predictions, and code.

The coupling of the angular jitter of the spacecraft and their sub-assemblies with the optical bench and the telescope into the interferometric length readout will be a major noise source in the LISA mission. We refer to this noise as tilt-to-length (TTL) coupling. It will be reduced directly by realignments, and the residual noise will then be subtracted in post-processing. The success of these mitigation strategies depends on an accurate computation of the TTL coupling coefficients. We present here a thorough analysis of the accuracy of the coefficient estimation under different jitter characteristics, angular readout noise levels, and gravitational wave sources. We analyze in which cases the estimates degrade using two estimators, the common least squares estimator and the instrumental variables estimator. Our investigations show that angular readout noise leads to a bias of the least squares estimator, depending on the TTL coupling coefficients, jitter and readout noise level, while the instrumental variable estimator is not biased. We present an equation that predicts the estimation bias of the least squares method due to angular readout noise.

Predicting how a patient's vital signs respond to an intervention is a central question in intensive care. World models can do so by learning dynamics as a function of prior actions. However, such models tend to be brittle outside of training data. Clinicians choose drug dosages based on the patient's state, so the association a model learns between dose and outcome runs opposite to the drug's effect, generalizing poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) dosing practices. Yet, pharmacological information provides the directional effects of different drugs, which are invariant to OOD shifts. To resolve the OOD sensitivity of current ICU world models, we introduce PHYSIO WORLD, which isolates an intervention's effect by evaluating a forward pass twice: once under recorded doses, and once with those doses set to zero. The difference is projected onto pharmacologically admissible effect directions stated by 70 rules over 28 drugs, leaving the magnitude to be learned from data. Across five distribution-shift parameters over cohorts from three intensive-care databases, and against forecasters, counterfactual models, and invariance objectives, PHYSIO WORLD attains the lowest OOD RMSE in every setting, improving on the strongest external baseline by 8-12%, while matching the in-distribution error of its backbone. Reversing the pharmacological directions degrades accuracy below the backbone, and data-mined directions recover almost no gain, indicating the improvement derives from the content of the pharmacological knowledge. The construction may extend to other settings where the sign of an effect is known in advance and its magnitude is confounded by treatment assignment.

We introduce a novel method for measuring properties of periodic phenomena with an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels. The approach assumes that for fast periodic phenomena, in any spatial window where it occurs, a very similar set of events is generated at the time difference corresponding to the frequency of the motion. To estimate the frequency, we compute correlations of spatio-temporal windows in the event space. The period is calculated from the time differences between the peaks of the correlation responses. The method is contactless, eliminating the need for markers, and does not need distinguishable landmarks. We evaluate the proposed method on three instances of periodic phenomena: (i) light flashes, (ii) vibration, and (iii) rotational speed. In all experiments, our method achieves a relative error lower than 0.04%, which is within the error margin of ground truth measurements.

Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR) serves as a convenient alternative: the measurement model is fitted to obtain factor scores in the first stage, which are then used to fit the structural model in the subsequent stage. However, naive application of FSR is known to yield biased estimates of structural parameters. In this paper, we develop a generic bias-correction framework for two-stage estimation of parametric statistical models and tailor it specifically to FSR. Unlike existing bias-corrected FSR solutions, the proposed method applies to a broader class of LV models and does not require computing specific types of factor scores. We establish the root-n consistency of the proposed bias-corrected two-stage estimator under mild regularity conditions. To ensure broad applicability and minimize reliance on complex analytical derivations, we introduce a stochastic approximation algorithm for point estimation and a Monte Carlo-based procedure for variance estimation. In a sequence of Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that the bias-corrected FSR estimator performs comparably to the ``gold standard'' one-stage maximum likelihood estimator. These results suggest that our approach offers a straightforward yet effective alternative for estimating LV models.

Meaningful scores for forecast verification are essential for developing reliable forecasts, and there has been much effort to develop scores that align well with human perceptions of forecast quality. Whilst many of these scores have intuitive interpretations, relatively little is known about how these scores rank different forecasts, and how scores reflect forecast error. We theoretically explore the behaviour of two scores that fall within the `neighbourhood' paradigm of spatial verification; the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Brier Divergence Skill Score (BDnSS). We investigate how each score ranks forecasts with two types of error; errors in the mean frequency (corresponding to intensity or shape errors) and errors in the standard deviation (corresponding to errors in spatial structure, such as blurring or excess noise). We find that under many situations the FSS assigns higher scores to forecasts that over-predict mean frequency, thus theoretically confirming the need to use the FSS with percentile thresholds. Both scores generally assign higher scores to forecasts with lower neighbourhood standard deviation, a reflection of the `double penalty' problem; however, we observe that size of this effect is larger for the BDnSS than the FSS, showing that the FSS under some situations is less susceptible to the double penalty problem than the BDnSS.

Imitation-learning policies for robot manipulation inherit the quality of the success labels attached to their training episodes, and those labels are usually produced by the robot's own success check. A particularly damaging error is the false success: an episode the robot logs as a success when the task outcome was actually wrong. We ask a narrow but practical question about these episodes. Once an episode has already been flagged as a success, how much of the information needed to overturn that label is present in proprioception, and how much requires vision? We build a simulated testbed on two bimanual ALOHA tasks, induce failures through environment perturbations rather than label edits, label every episode by privileged simulator state that the detector never sees, and keep only episodes the robot flagged as successful. We then compare detectors restricted to proprioception against a vision-based detector. We find that recoverability spans a wide range: in cube transfer the false successes are almost fully recoverable from joint data alone, while in peg insertion proprioception recovers only part of them and a vision detector closes most of the gap. We also show that the proprioceptive separability we measure rests on velocity differences far below any realistic sensor noise floor, so it is best read as an optimistic upper bound that a noiseless simulator inflates. We release the generation and evaluation pipeline.

Many localized large language model (LLM) unlearning methods select a small parameter subset from a localization signal and keep it fixed during optimization. The parameters most associated with a target, however, need not be the best ones to update, and candidate interventions can change value as optimization proceeds. In a controlled experiment, a storage-localization score reaches an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.981, yet storage identity agrees with the better intervention on only 17/36 targets, while low-rank adaptation (LoRA) wins 35/36. We introduce Intervention Score, which ranks editable groups by the predicted effect of the actual unlearning update while accounting for collateral damage, and use it to form the static intervention-value baseline (Static-IV). We then introduce selective dynamic intervention re-ranking (DIR-R), which revisits that subset only when a calibrated probe justifies the comparison. On the Natural-TOFU dataset, our method has positive descriptive margins in 19/20 comparisons between methods and objectives, although several are near zero. On the LACUNA localization-precision benchmark, our mean terminal utility is higher in all six negative preference optimization (NPO) and SimNPO comparisons: NPO margins range from +0.431 to +0.848, and SimNPO margins range from +0.503 to +0.571. The gradient-difference (GradDiff) objective reveals substantial field dependence. Relative to Static-IV, the primary four-field GradDiff evaluation has six wins, six ties, and no losses, with mean and median paired gains of +0.165 and +0.0025. The evidence supports separating localization, initial intervention selection, and checkpoint-dependent support revision.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

Dense retrievers exhibit positional bias, favoring documents whose query-relevant information appears near the beginning and degrading retrieval performance when the information appears later. While prior work on positional bias in dense retrievers has largely focused on architectural explanations, we study how the positional distribution of evidence in training data affects retrieval-level bias direction. To test this, we construct synthetic position-targeted training sets in which query-relevant evidence appears at the beginning, middle, or end of documents, and fine-tune eight architecturally diverse pretrained models under position-skewed and balanced training distributions. At the ranking level, we observe a strong directional pattern across the examined models: skewed training distributions favor evidence at the corresponding positions. Position-balanced training reduces positional sensitivity by 57--87\% on position-aware benchmarks, with competitive mean retrieval performance in our controlled setting. Representation-level analyses further suggest that fine-tuning often reshapes learned positional preferences, although pre-existing architectural or pretraining-specific tendencies persist in some models. These results identify training-position distribution as a major controllable factor in retrieval-level position bias and suggest balanced data curation as a practical mitigation strategy.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

Embedding models are crucial for tasks in Information Retrieval (IR) and semantic similarity measurement, yet their handling of longer texts and associated positional biases remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the impact of content position and input size on text embeddings. Our experiments reveal that embedding models, irrespective of their positional encoding mechanisms, disproportionately prioritize the beginning of an input. Ablation studies demonstrate that insertion of irrelevant text or removal at the start of a document reduces cosine similarity between altered and original embeddings by up to 12.3% more than ablations at the end. Regression analysis further confirms this bias, with sentence importance declining as position moves further from the start, even with with content-agnosticity. We hypothesize that this effect arises from pre-processing strategies and chosen positional encoding techniques. These findings quantify the sensitivity of retrieval systems and suggest a new lens towards embedding model robustness.

Orbit recovery problems are a class of problems that often arise in practice and various forms. In these problems, we aim to estimate an unknown function after being distorted by a group action and observed via a known operator. Typically, the observations are contaminated with a non-trivial level of noise. Two particular orbit recovery problems of interest in this paper are multireference alignment and single-particle cryo-EM modelling. In order to suppress the noise, we suggest using the method of moments approach for both problems while introducing deep neural network priors. In particular, our neural networks should output the signals and the distribution of group elements, with moments being the input. In the multireference alignment case, we demonstrate the advantage of using the NN to accelerate the convergence for the reconstruction of signals from the moments. Finally, we use our method to reconstruct simulated and biological volumes in the cryo-EM setting.

This study investigates the existence of positional biases in Transformer-based models for text representation learning, particularly in the context of web document retrieval. We build on previous research that demonstrated loss of information in the middle of input sequences for causal language models, extending it to the domain of representation learning. We examine positional biases at various stages of training for an encoder-decoder model, including language model pre-training, contrastive pre-training, and contrastive fine-tuning. Experiments with the MS-MARCO document collection reveal that after contrastive pre-training the model already generates embeddings that better capture early contents of the input, with fine-tuning further aggravating this effect.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Automating radiology report generation can significantly alleviate radiologists' workloads. Previous research has primarily focused on realizing highly concise observations while neglecting the precise attributes that determine the severity of diseases (e.g., small pleural effusion). Since incorrect attributes will lead to imprecise radiology reports, strengthening the generation process with precise attribute modeling becomes necessary. Additionally, the temporal information contained in the historical records, which is crucial in evaluating a patient's current condition (e.g., heart size is unchanged), has also been largely disregarded. To address these issues, we propose RECAP, which generates precise and accurate radiology reports via dynamic disease progression reasoning. Specifically, RECAP first predicts the observations and progressions (i.e., spatiotemporal information) given two consecutive radiographs. It then combines the historical records, spatiotemporal information, and radiographs for report generation, where a disease progression graph and dynamic progression reasoning mechanism are devised to accurately select the attributes of each observation and progression. Extensive experiments on two publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Existing benchmarks evaluate tabletop manipulation, flat-floor household activity, or humanoid locomotion and manipulation as separate task groups; none scores vertical mobility and dexterous work on a fragile payload in one long-horizon episode. We present Fiatlux, a light-bulb replacement benchmark built on NVIDIA Isaac Lab. In one episode, a Unitree G1 humanoid positions a step ladder under a ceiling or wall fixture, climbs it, exchanges a spent bulb in a socket for a fresh one, and leaves the spent one in a disposal crate. We decompose the episode into twelve subtask environments scored on difficulty-weighted gates. The goal is a successful replacement, with the fresh bulb seated, the spent one disposed of, neither dropped, and a fragility bound not crossed. Runs that fall short can earn partial credit. Observations are split into a standard mode (signals a physical robot could sense or estimate) and a privileged mode (exact simulator state). We specify the evaluation protocol and provide reference baseline implementations spanning RSL-RL PPO, zero-shot NVIDIA GR00T N1.7 Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, and whole-body controllers. Additionally, we provide the teleoperated recordings used to specify and check the success gates. The benchmark code and the teleoperated recordings are available at fiatlux-bench.github.io.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the statistic. Using these measures a system that performs worse in the objective sense of Informedness, can appear to perform better under any of these commonly used measures. We discuss several concepts and measures that reflect the probability that prediction is informed versus chance. Informedness and introduce Markedness as a dual measure for the probability that prediction is marked versus chance. Finally we demonstrate elegant connections between the concepts of Informedness, Markedness, Correlation and Significance as well as their intuitive relationships with Recall and Precision, and outline the extension from the dichotomous case to the general multi-class case.

Video world models approximate the stochastic distribution of physical outcomes through generative sampling, but existing benchmarks score individual generations or compare distributions coarsely over a whole dataset, leaving the fine-grained aleatoric uncertainty of specific phenomena untested. We introduce CaliBench, which scores outcomes in a physically interpretable discrete space - a bin index, a die face, a suit, a colour - rather than a learned feature space such as in FID, so the distance from a known reference distribution is measured directly. We curate outcome spaces whose reference is known in closed form (binomial Galton boards, Bernoulli forks, uniform dice/cards/lottery, a skewed European-roulette colour), enabling an exact calibration test. We decompose performance into two orthogonal axes that a single accuracy metric conflates: scorability, the fraction of generations yielding a scoreable outcome, and calibration, the total variation distance from the reference on that sample. A chi-squared test assesses significance; as calibration is its null hypothesis it can evidence only miscalibration, and at N=32 per cell detects only large deviations. We apply it to nine scenes and six image-to-video models (WAN-2.7, SeeDance-2.0, HappyHorse-1.0, Veo 3.1, Runway Gen-4.5, Cosmos3-Super), 32 generations each. Models consistently concentrate probability mass on a few outcomes rather than reproducing the reference. Most scene-model combinations are significantly miscalibrated, in the extreme collapsing to one outcome, as Veo 3.1 does on dice. On roulette, generations often leave the ball ambiguously placed, giving several models low scorability. Performance varies by scene: no model dominates all nine. We release the protocol and a metric (mean normalised total variation, mnTV) for comparing new models against our results.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

In this paper, we develop position embedding transformation (PETR) for multi-view 3D object detection. PETR encodes the position information of 3D coordinates into image features, producing the 3D position-aware features. Object query can perceive the 3D position-aware features and perform end-to-end object detection. PETR achieves state-of-the-art performance (50.4% NDS and 44.1% mAP) on standard nuScenes dataset and ranks 1st place on the benchmark. It can serve as a simple yet strong baseline for future research. Code is available at https://github.com/megvii-research/PETR.

To examine whether collector-generated terminal labels on the pump.fun platform can be interpreted as platform-side graduation outcomes, and whether a pre-registered logistic association model generalises across a subsequent temporal holdout of the same cohort. A frozen primary cohort of 749,816 unique mints recorded by a V3 off-chain collector between 12 May 2026 and 10 June 2026 is analysed. The design combines a source-code and reconstructed-state measurement audit of the collector's terminal-classification mechanism with a pre-registered locked logistic association model fitted on a 15-day development cohort and evaluated on a subsequent 14-day validation cohort under the pre-registered stability-gate framework. Calendar-day cluster-robust covariance and day-block bootstrap procedures assess uncertainty. Development discrimination is high (AUROC 0.8594), but the model does not generalise to the held-out validation cohort (AUROC 0.4642; 500 of 500 successful bootstrap replicates; 95% percentile interval [0.4112, 0.5196] containing 0.5000). Validation calibration deteriorates substantially (slope 0.013, intercept +2.816); the market-cap functional form is not stable across pre-registered specifications; and of nine automated evaluations, two pass, six fail, and one is not evaluable. The collector's TIMEOUT label does not establish platform-side non-graduation. The paper treats outcome ascertainment as a first-order measurement problem rather than assuming that an off-chain collector's terminal classification measures the platform-side event. It pairs this audit with a pre-registered held-out temporal-generalisation test and reports the resulting negative finding as registered, alongside a fully reproducible correction history.

We introduce a formal active learning methodology for guiding the placement of Lagrangian observers to infer time-dependent vector fields -- a key task in oceanography, marine science, and ocean engineering -- using a physics-informed spatio-temporal Gaussian process surrogate model. The majority of existing placement campaigns either follow standard `space-filling' designs or relatively ad-hoc expert opinions. A key challenge to applying principled active learning in this setting is that Lagrangian observers are continuously advected through the vector field, so they make measurements at different locations and times. It is, therefore, important to consider the likely future trajectories of placed observers to account for the utility of candidate placement locations. To this end, we present BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories. We observe noticeable benefits of BALLAST-aided sequential observer placement strategies on both synthetic and high-fidelity ocean current models. In addition, we developed a novel GP inference method -- the Vanilla SPDE Exchange (VaSE) -- to boost the GP posterior sampling efficiency, which is also of independent interest.

Standard positional encodings represent position as a one-dimensional reading-order coordinate, but reading order alone does not determine hierarchical textual structure. We use a hierarchical rotary positional encoding (hRoPE) that represents paragraph, sentence, and token indices as separate channels, hold the token sequence fixed, intervene on the paragraph coordinate p1, and measure cross-paragraph attention with a token-distance-exact estimator. Attention is compressed relative to a token-distance-matched baseline in every corpus, but compression alone is not diagnostic of true structure: an architecturally identical channel with density-matched random labels is compressed too, more shallowly. What distinguishes real structure is the depth of compression, which is greater and corpus-dependent while the control's is not. Comparing eight corpus-only quantities across three constructs (lexical persistence, paragraph length, embedding-based coherence), none fully reproduces the cross-corpus ordering of depth, though embedding-based coherence comes closest. Compression depth, not its location, is the reproducible signature of genuine paragraph structure in our setting.

Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.

Large video language models (LVLMs) have made notable progress in video understanding, spurring the development of corresponding evaluation benchmarks. However, existing benchmarks generally assess overall performance across entire video sequences, overlooking nuanced behaviors such as contextual positional bias, a critical yet under-explored aspect of LVLM performance. We present Video-LevelGauge, a dedicated benchmark designed to systematically assess positional bias in LVLMs. We employ standardized probes and customized contextual setups, allowing flexible control over context length, probe position, and contextual types to simulate diverse real-world scenarios. In addition, we introduce a comprehensive analysis method that combines statistical measures with morphological pattern recognition to characterize bias. Our benchmark comprises 438 manually curated videos spanning multiple types, yielding 1,177 high-quality multiple-choice questions and 120 open-ended questions, validated for their effectiveness in exposing positional bias. Based on these, we evaluate 27 state-of-the-art LVLMs, including both commercial and open-source models. Our findings reveal significant positional biases in many leading open-source models, typically exhibiting head or neighbor-content preferences. In contrast, commercial models such as Gemini2.5-Pro show impressive, consistent performance across entire video sequences. Further analyses on context length, context variation, and model scale provide actionable insights for mitigating bias and guiding model enhancement.

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Reality may establish that an outcome occurred without identifying which evolving procedure produced it or why. This distinction matters in production ML systems whose code, configuration, and artifacts change while external feedback accumulates. We examine it in a human-directed, agent-engineered quantitative trading system, using oracle to mean an external source of realized outcomes rather than a complete correctness specification. Across one year, the account gained and outperformed a broad market index, while annual alpha was not statistically distinguishable from zero under the main retrospective specification. Retrospectively selected subperiods include adverse relative performance and conditional candidate-level weakness under declared approximate references. Engineering records document changes during the episode, and complete recommendation-to-runtime binding is unavailable. The archive does not establish a common frozen instance or a unique cause. The case motivates an outcome--diagnosis gap: outcome evidence, evaluated-object identity, and causal explanation support distinct claims. We distinguish frozen instances, pre-specified adaptive procedures, and ad-hoc development; organize archive-relative claim identifiability and an evidence hierarchy; and propose a prospective production-binding protocol. An illustrative compatible-history example shows how factual binding can resolve a recommendation's referent without supplying its counterfactual effect. The protocol is proposed rather than prospectively validated. External feedback constrains outcome claims, while provenance and additional identification structure determine the resolution of diagnosis.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems rely on retrieved documents being concatenated into a model's input context, making both document ordering and context size critical yet controversial design choices. Prior work reports position-based effects such as lost in the middle and related long-context phenomena. However, empirical findings remain inconsistent and hard to reproduce across models, datasets, and evaluation protocols. In this paper, we present a systematic reproducibility study that revisits these claims and examines how they evolve with contemporary LLMs under a controlled evaluation framework. We first show that topic sampling is a major source of variance: small topic sets can mask or exaggerate ordering effects. Based on repeated subset sampling across multiple topic budgets, we provide a practical calibration procedure that identifies topic counts yielding stable trends at feasible cost. Using these fixed topic sets, we then reproduce and extend results on position sensitivity, re-evaluating lost in the middle and positional biases in modern LLMs. Then, we also study a more realistic RAG scenario in which relevance is mediated by a retriever rather than oracle access to ground-truth documents. In this setting, we re-examine a recent industry study and identify discrepancies to evaluation choices such as limited topic coverage and reliance on LLM-based judges. Finally, we conduct an analysis of how retrieval order and context size affect downstream LLM performance under imperfect retrieval. Our results demonstrate that both factors interact strongly with retrieval quality and model choice, and that conclusions drawn from idealised setups do not always transfer to real-world RAG pipelines. We release all code and configurations to support reproducibility and future work on robust RAG evaluation.

In this work we study indoor scene object placement. Given a 3D indoor scene and an object, the task is to predict placement locations within the scene. Empirical observations of data-driven approaches to the problem show their tendency to miss placement modes. We introduce a system which helps to address this flaw. We design a Domain Specific Language (DSL) that specifies object relational constraints. Upon execution, programs from our language predict possible placements from a partial scene and object. We design a generative model which writes these programs automatically. Available 3D scene datasets do not contain programs to train on, and naively extracted programs only predict the original placement location of scene objects. Training on these programs results in subpar performance so we introduce a new program bootstrapping algorithm that improves our system's performance compared to the naive approach. To quantify our qualitative observations, we introduce a new evaluation procedure which captures how well a system models per-object location distributions. We ask human annotators to label all the possible places an object can go in a scene and compare this set against locations produced by the system in question. Our system produces per-object location distributions more consistent with human annotators than those produced by existing data-driven approaches and a zero-shot approach using an LLM. While other systems degrade in performance when training data is sparse, our system does not degrade to the same degree.

Is it possible to perform linear regression on datasets whose labels are shuffled with respect to the inputs? We explore this question by proposing several estimators that recover the weights of a noisy linear model from labels that are shuffled by an unknown permutation. We show that the analog of the classical least-squares estimator produces inconsistent estimates in this setting, and introduce an estimator based on the self-moments of the input features and labels. We study the regimes in which each estimator excels, and generalize the estimators to the setting where partial ordering information is available in the form of experiments replicated independently. The result is a framework that enables robust inference, as we demonstrate by experiments on both synthetic and standard datasets, where we are able to recover approximate weights using only shuffled labels. Our work demonstrates that linear regression in the absence of complete ordering information is possible and can be of practical interest, particularly in experiments that characterize populations of particles, such as flow cytometry.

On-policy distillation (OPD) provides dense teacher supervision on student-generated trajectories, but standard reverse-KL training can assign insufficient probability to other plausible continuations. Teacher entropy alone does not reveal whether uncertainty is concentrated among a few plausible next tokens or dispersed over a long probability tail, nor whether the student already represents those candidates well. Moreover, local teacher probabilities may not predict downstream success. We introduce Sparse Probing and Outcome-calibrated Targets OPD (SPOT), which addresses two coupled decisions, where to probe and what to distill, through an acquisition--exploration--exploitation procedure. During acquisition, a position-level score combines normalized teacher entropy, the probability mass captured by a small top-k candidate set, and student--teacher mismatch to allocate a limited probing budget. During exploration, SPOT evaluates teacher-proposed candidates through verifier-scored student continuations. During exploitation, these outcomes produce a closed-form, KL-regularized target that favors candidates with better downstream outcomes while remaining anchored to the teacher distribution. Extensive experiments across multiple student models and reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of SPOT in improving reasoning performance while balancing solution quality and coverage.

Classical CUSUM relies on the log-likelihood ratio of the underlying distributions, which cannot generally be computed from finite pre- and post-change samples alone. We propose diffusion-integrated score CUSUM (DI-SCUSUM), a training-free detector. We add Gaussian noise to the samples to form two smooth density estimates and calculate their Hyvärinen scores exactly, without training a score network. For each incoming observation, we sample a diffusion time, perturb the observation, and use the importance-weighted score difference as an increment in the DI-SCUSUM recursion. Under the assumption that observations follow the fixed empirical distributions, the post-change mean increment is proportional to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the smoothed post-change to the smoothed pre-change empirical distribution. We establish exponential false-alarm scaling and a first-order delay bound that, for a fixed threshold and increment scaling, is inversely proportional to the KL divergence. In the calibrated anisotropic Gaussian simulation, DI-SCUSUM nearly matches likelihood-ratio CUSUM and reduces the measured detection delay by about 91% relative to score-based CUSUM. On MNIST and Oxford-IIIT Pet, DI-SCUSUM also has lower empirical conditional detection delay than SCUSUM at comparable false-alarm levels.

The all-sky 408 MHz map of Haslam et al. is one the most important total-power radio surveys. It has been widely used to study diffuse synchrotron radiation from our Galaxy and as a template to remove foregrounds in cosmic microwave background data. However, there are a number of issues associated with it that must be dealt with, including large-scale striations and contamination from extragalactic radio sources. We have re-evaluated and re-processed the rawest data available to produce a new and improved 408 MHz all-sky map. We first quantify the positional accuracy (approx 7 arcmin) and effective beam (56.0pm1.0 arcmin) of the four individual surveys from which it was assembled. Large-scale striations associated with 1/f noise in the scan direction are reduced to a level ll 1 K using a Fourier-based filtering technique. The most important improvement results from the removal of extragalactic sources. We have used an iterative combination of two techniques -- two-dimensional Gaussian fitting and minimum curvature spline surface inpainting -- to remove the brightest sources (gtrsim 2 Jy), which provides a significant improvement over previous versions of the map. We quantify the impact with power spectra and a template fitting analysis of foregrounds to the WMAP data. The new map is publicly available and is recommended as the template of choice for large-scale diffuse Galactic synchrotron emission. We also provide a higher resolution map with small-scale fluctuations added, assuming a power-law angular power spectrum down to the pixel scale (1.7 arcmin). This should prove useful in simulations used for studying the feasibility of detecting HI fluctuations from the Epoch of Reionization.

Positional encoding (PE) underpins how permutation-invariant Transformers represent sequence order, yet how positional information is processed and stored remains poorly understood. Modern PE methods such as RoPE still struggle on tasks such as long-context understanding or retrieval chen-etal-2025-hope. Hence, a better understanding of the internal positional mechanism could help design better PE. Building on evidence that positional and semantic signals occupy nearly orthogonal subspaces in trained Transformers, we modify an encoder Transformer to process three explicitly disentangled streams: semantic, absolute positional (AP) and relative positional (RP), and confine the masked-language-modeling (MLM) objective to the semantic stream. This decoupling enables a clean mechanistic study and yields three take-aways. (1) The isolated AP subspace spontaneously collapses into a low-frequency two-dimensional manifold that captures the structure of the document; (2) Attention heads specialize into structure and semantic-oriented groups, with RP exclusively supporting the latter; (3) Standard positional encodings do not robustly retain macroscopic structure: RoPE and RP only weakly encode it, and entangled AP loses it in the final layers under MLM pressure. The disentangled approach preserves positional encoding, which improves linguistic representation on 49 of the 65 linguistic phenomena of the Flash-Holmes probing benchmark.

Preference learning algorithms (e.g., RLHF and DPO) are frequently used to steer LLMs to produce generations that are more preferred by humans, but our understanding of their inner workings is still limited. In this work, we study the conventional wisdom that preference learning trains models to assign higher likelihoods to more preferred outputs than less preferred outputs, measured via ranking accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that most state-of-the-art preference-tuned models achieve a ranking accuracy of less than 60% on common preference datasets. We furthermore derive the idealized ranking accuracy that a preference-tuned LLM would achieve if it optimized the DPO or RLHF objective perfectly. We demonstrate that existing models exhibit a significant alignment gap -- i.e., a gap between the observed and idealized ranking accuracies. We attribute this discrepancy to the DPO objective, which is empirically and theoretically ill-suited to fix even mild ranking errors in the reference model, and derive a simple and efficient formula for quantifying the difficulty of learning a given preference datapoint. Finally, we demonstrate that ranking accuracy strongly correlates with the empirically popular win rate metric when the model is close to the reference model used in the objective, shedding further light on the differences between on-policy (e.g., RLHF) and off-policy (e.g., DPO) preference learning algorithms.

A treatment may affect some individuals while leaving others unaffected. We study the reach of treatment effects by asking how large an unaffected covariate region could be. We develop efficient local randomization tests over nearest-neighbour regions to construct a finite-sample valid upper confidence bound for the size of the largest zero-effect region. A small bound provides evidence that treatment effects extend broadly across covariate values by ruling out large zero-effect regions. Under a general outcome model, we characterize how the size of the bound depends on the number of affected units, the size of their treatment effects, and the geometry of the true zero-effect set. We show that, when region size is measured as a sample fraction, the excess of the upper confidence bound over the true size decreases to zero at a minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations assess the coverage, power and computational efficiency of our method. Applications to voter-turnout, HIV clinical-trial, and AI-assisted writing data illustrate how our method rules out large zero-effect regions across the covariates of interest.

Large language models often show users a final response and a short reasoning summary while the full reasoning trace stays hidden. We introduce an observability ladder that holds each completed run fixed and varies only what a reader inspects to judge whether the answer is correct: the response, a self-summary the model writes from the trace, the trace itself, and internal signals, each with and without the prompt. Across three benchmarks and five open-weight Qwen3 and gpt-oss models, we train matched linear correctness predictors on each access level. Without the prompt, summaries carry most of the trace's ranking signal (mean AUROC 0.774 versus 0.813) and add +0.156 over the response alone. With the prompt visible, the summary's gain collapses to +0.019, while the trace still adds +0.041. Even at equal length, the trace's last words predict correctness as well as summaries, or slightly better, and carry denser and more discriminative uncertainty and self-correction cues. On MMLU-Pro questions with both correct and incorrect runs, linear summary readers are near chance and trace readers retain only modest signal, both with and without the prompt (prompt-withheld AUROC 0.503-0.545 versus 0.544-0.590). With the prompt withheld, a GPT-5-mini reader recovers substantially more signal from both summaries and traces on gpt-oss-20b, and even then the trace keeps a small +0.034 advantage. Much of the linear readers' trace signal is associated with length. In the common case where users already hold the prompt, summaries are less helpful than the full trace for monitoring correctness. Monitorability is thus a joint property of the display and the reader, so any monitorability claim, including for faithfulness, should specify both.

The "thinking-with-images" paradigm equips multimodal LLMs with active visual operations such as crop-and-zoom. However, models using these operations often achieve only marginal or negative gains over direct inference at substantially higher token cost. They may also repeatedly crop irrelevant regions and fail on questions that direct inference answers correctly. We ask whether the returned visual evidence causally affects the answer. To answer this question, we formulate visual tool-use as a causal graph that separates observation-mediated paths from action-induced shortcuts. We then audit it through interventions at the three levels: policy (comparing tool-use with direct inference), trajectory (corrupting all observations during rollout), and step (counterfactually replacing one individual observation under a fixed prefix). Our step-level estimand, Visual Evidence Gain, isolates the contribution of each returned observation. Across six representative models and five fine-grained perception benchmarks, we uncover policy miscalibration with two failure modes. In Calling Without Looking, returned observations have no causal effect on the answer. In Looking Without Planning, observations are informative but the call schedule is incoherent. A trajectory-level diagnostic decomposes the policy-level accuracy gain and shows that the gain is concentrated in a Calibrated minority. We term this discrepancy the illusion of visual tool-use: despite aggregate accuracy gains, visual tool-use is not causally effective across a broad range of rollouts. The code is available at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauAudit.

The attention mechanism is a critical component of Large Language Models (LLMs) that allows tokens in a sequence to interact with each other, but is order-invariant. Incorporating position encoding (PE) makes it possible to address by position, such as attending to the i-th token. However, current PE methods use token counts to derive position, and thus cannot generalize to higher levels of abstraction, such as attending to the i-th sentence. In this paper, we propose a new position encoding method, Contextual Position Encoding (CoPE), that allows positions to be conditioned on context by incrementing position only on certain tokens determined by the model. This allows more general position addressing such as attending to the i-th particular word, noun, or sentence. We show that CoPE can solve the selective copy, counting and Flip-Flop tasks where popular position embeddings fail, and improves perplexity on language modeling and coding tasks.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

This paper uses the Korean Baseball Organization's adoption of the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system to audit long-standing claims about contextual bias in human ball-strike calls. Using pitch-level KBO data from 2021 through the available portion of the 2026 season, we model called-strike probability for taken pitches near the strike-zone boundary, with 2022-2023 as the primary human-umpire baseline and ABS seasons (2024 and onward) as a diagnostic benchmark. The strongest evidence concerns count pressure. Relative to 0--0 counts, human umpires called substantially fewer strikes in two-strike counts and more strikes in hitter-ahead three-ball counts. Specifically, in the main 0.25-ft boundary band, 0--2 was associated with a -17.17 percentage-point effect and 3--0 with a +6.61 percentage-point effect. Under ABS, the corresponding effects were close to zero and did not survive false-discovery-rate correction. Game progression shows a smaller but coherent pattern as human calls were less strike-prone in early innings and more strike-prone in innings 7--9+, especially in late-close situations, while complete ABS seasons were essentially flat. Other suspected biases are weaker or more localized. Salary-based reputation proxies provide suggestive but proxy-sensitive evidence, and catcher identity shows human-period residual heterogeneity that disappears under ABS. Home-context evidence is mostly null at the umpire level, with one FDR-significant human-period exception and an exploratory umpire-team gap best treated as an audit lead. Overall, the results do not show that human umpires were biased everywhere. Instead, they map where the human strike zone was most context-sensitive, where evidence was weaker, and where common suspicions received little support.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

Length extrapolation algorithms based on Rotary position embedding (RoPE) have shown promising results in extending the context length of language models. However, understanding how position embedding can capture longer-range contextual information remains elusive. Based on the intuition that different dimensions correspond to different frequency of changes in RoPE encoding, we conducted a dimension-level analysis to investigate the correlation between a hidden dimension of an attention head and its contribution to capturing long-distance dependencies. Using our correlation metric, we identified a particular type of attention heads, which we named Positional Heads, from various length-extrapolated models. These heads exhibit a strong focus on long-range information interaction and play a pivotal role in long input processing, as evidence by our ablation. We further demonstrate the correlation between the efficiency of length extrapolation and the extension of the high-dimensional attention allocation of these heads. The identification of Positional Heads provides insights for future research in long-text comprehension.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

Post-selecting output states in measurements can effectively amplify weak signals and improve precision. However, post-selection effects may also introduce unintended biases in precision measurements. Here, we investigate the influence of post-selection in the precision spectroscopy of the 2^3S - 2^3P transition of helium (^4He) using an atomic beam. We directly observe that post-selection based on atomic positions causes a shift in the measured transition frequency, amounting to approximately -55 kHz. After accounting for this post-selection shift, we obtain a corrected frequency of 276,764,094,712.45 pm 0.86 kHz for the 2^3S_1 - 2^3P_0 transition. Combining this result with existing data for ^3He, we derive a new value for the difference in squared nuclear charge radii, δr^2 [r_{h}^{2} - r_α^{2}] = 1.0733 pm 0.0021 fm^2. This value shows a 2.8σ deviation from measurements of muonic helium ions, potentially pointing to new physics that challenges lepton universality in quantum electrodynamics.

Text summarization models have typically focused on optimizing aspects of quality such as fluency, relevance, and coherence, particularly in the context of news articles. However, summarization models are increasingly being used to summarize diverse sources of text, such as social media data, that encompass a wide demographic user base. It is thus crucial to assess not only the quality of the generated summaries, but also the extent to which they can fairly represent the opinions of diverse social groups. Position bias, a long-known issue in news summarization, has received limited attention in the context of social multi-document summarization. We deeply investigate this phenomenon by analyzing the effect of group ordering in input documents when summarizing tweets from three distinct linguistic communities: African-American English, Hispanic-aligned Language, and White-aligned Language. Our empirical analysis shows that although the textual quality of the summaries remains consistent regardless of the input document order, in terms of fairness, the results vary significantly depending on how the dialect groups are presented in the input data. Our results suggest that position bias manifests differently in social multi-document summarization, severely impacting the fairness of summarization models.

Reading measurement instruments is effortless for humans and requires relatively little domain expertise, yet it remains surprisingly challenging for current vision-language models (VLMs) as we find in preliminary evaluation. In this work, we introduce MeasureBench, a benchmark on visual measurement reading covering both real-world and synthesized images of various types of measurements, along with an extensible pipeline for data synthesis. Our pipeline procedurally generates a specified type of gauge with controllable visual appearance, enabling scalable variation in key details such as pointers, scales, fonts, lighting, and clutter. Evaluation on popular proprietary and open-weight VLMs shows that even the strongest frontier VLMs struggle measurement reading in general. A consistent failure mode is indicator localization: models can read digits or labels but misidentify the key positions of pointers or alignments, leading to big numeric errors despite plausible textual reasoning. We have also conducted preliminary experiments with reinforcement learning over synthetic data, and find encouraging results on in-domain synthetic subset but less promising for real-world images. Our analysis highlights a fundamental limitation of current VLMs in fine-grained spatial grounding. We hope this resource can help future advances on visually grounded numeracy and precise spatial perception of VLMs, bridging the gap between recognizing numbers and measuring the world.

LeWorldModel trains a latent world model with a prediction loss and a single anti-collapse regulariser, and reports approximately 87% of goals reached on TwoRoom, its simplest diagnostic environment. We reproduce that result by independent reimplementation on roughly $25 of rented compute, with all evaluation on one laptop CPU. We reach 94.0% at the repository's evaluation goal offset, against 84.0% for the authors' own released checkpoint measured under our protocol on identical episodes, and we reproduce the reported representation result directly (position probe Pearson r = 0.9988 against a reported 0.996). Reaching that point required four conventions that determine the outcome and appear in no released configuration file: dense action gathering across a frameskip block, a programmatically-set action-encoder width, ImageNet pixel normalisation, and action z-scoring. A reproducer following the released configurations alone obtains a model whose predictor cannot converge. The evaluation protocol is itself contested by the released material. The paper's appendix and the repository's configuration specify different goal offsets and step budgets; on the authors' own weights these yield 14.0% and 84.0%, and only the configuration's values reproduce the reported figure. On fifty identical episodes, changing nothing but how the goal is constructed moves that checkpoint from 84.0% to 8.0%. Two findings generalise. One-step prediction accuracy does not predict long-horizon planning success: across three checkpoints spanning a sevenfold range in prediction error, including the authors' own, it orders short-horizon success monotonically and fails to order long-horizon success at all. And a batch normalisation layer inflated our reported validation loss by up to a factor of 300, concealing a training loss that was flat throughout.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

Many positional encodings (PEs) are designed to exhibit long-term decay, based on an entrenched and long-standing inductive opinion: tokens farther away from the current position carry less relevant information. We argue that long-term decay is outdated in the era of LLMs, as LLMs are now applied to tasks demanding precise retrieval of in-context information from arbitrary positions. Firstly, we present empirical analyses on various PEs, demonstrating that models inherently learn attention with only a local-decay pattern while forming a U-shape pattern globally, contradicting the principle of long-term decay. Furthermore, we conduct a detailed analysis of rotary position encoding (RoPE, a prevalent relative positional encoding in LLMs), and found that the U-shape attention is caused by some learned components, which are also the key factor limiting RoPE's expressiveness and extrapolation.Inspired by these insights, we propose High-frequency rotary Position Encoding (HoPE). HoPE replaces the specific components in RoPE with position-independent ones, retaining only high-frequency signals, which also breaks the principle of long-term decay in theory. HoPE achieves two major advantages: (1) Without constraints imposed by long-term decay, contradictory factors that limit spontaneous attention optimization and model extrapolation performance are removed. (2) Components representing positions and semantics are are optimized. These enhances model's context awareness and extrapolation, as validated by extensive experiments.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the time-evolving state of a dynamical system by integrating model predictions and noisy observations. It is commonly formulated as Bayesian filtering, but classical filters often struggle with accuracy or computational feasibility in high dimensions. Recently, score-based generative models have emerged as a scalable approach for high-dimensional data assimilation, enabling accurate modeling and sampling of complex distributions. However, existing score-based filters often specify the forward process independently of the data assimilation. As a result, the measurement-update step depends on heuristic approximations of the likelihood score, which can accumulate errors and degrade performance over time. Here, we propose a measurement-aware score-based filter (MASF) that defines a measurement-aware forward process directly from the measurement equation. This construction makes the likelihood score analytically tractable: for linear measurements, we derive the exact likelihood score and combine it with a learned prior score to obtain the posterior score. Numerical experiments covering a range of settings, including high-dimensional datasets, demonstrate improved accuracy and stability over existing score-based filters.

Estimating the causal effects of interventions is crucial to policy and decision-making, yet outcome data are often missing or subject to non-standard measurement error. While ground-truth outcomes can sometimes be obtained through costly data annotation or follow-up, budget constraints typically allow only a fraction of the dataset to be labeled. We address this challenge by optimizing which data points should be sampled for outcome information in order to improve efficiency in average treatment effect estimation with missing outcomes. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal batch sampling probability by minimizing the asymptotic variance of a doubly robust estimator for causal inference with missing outcomes. Motivated by our street outreach partners, we extend the framework to costly annotations of unstructured data, such as text or images in healthcare and social services. Across simulated and real-world datasets, including one of outreach interventions in homelessness services, our approach achieves substantially lower mean-squared error and recovers the AIPW estimate with fewer labels than existing baselines. In practice, we show that our method can match confidence intervals obtained with 361 random samples using only 90 optimized samples - saving 75% of the labeling budget.

Autoregressive language models are least accurate at the beginning of a sequence, where little context forces reliance on a generic pretraining prior. We show that this cold-start penalty is domain dependent and reduce it with a domain-conditional position offset: a single learned vector added to the embedding activation at the first sequence positions while all model weights remain frozen. The offset trains in minutes on roughly one hundred documents, switches between domains without added sequence state, and has no measurable latency overhead. Across eight Mamba, GPT-NeoX, and Llama models spanning 410M to 8B parameters, it reduces held-out in-domain perplexity by up to 27%; the effect persists at 70B, and one position captures most of the benefit. A matched, converged direct logit-bias correction reaches at most only 7.9% and leaves later-token loss unchanged, showing that the offset propagates through model state rather than merely recalibrating the output prior. A tuned LoRA reaches lower perplexity but uses two to three orders of magnitude more parameters and an active low-rank weight path, while soft prompts add sequence positions. With wrong-domain controls, offsets improve retrieval reranking and domain classification when decisions depend on early in-domain tokens, For the few-shot reasoning whose signal occurs later, the results maintains unchanged. Position-aware prefill application also help generation tasks, whereas naive application at every cached decoding step causes repetition. The offset is therefore not the strongest adapter, but a lightweight, hot switchable tool for short in-domain scoring and calibration.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) tests single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers across the genome to localize the underlying causal variant of a trait. Because causal variants are seldom observed directly, a surrogate model based on genotyped markers are widely considered. Although many methods estimating the parameters of the surrogate model have been proposed, the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model is yet investigated. In this work, we establish the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model. The connection shows that population structure is accounted in GWAS by modelling the variant of interest and not the trait. Such observation explains how environmental confounding can be partially corrected using genetic covariates and why the previously claimed connection between PC correction and linear mixed models is incorrect.